Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.942771 12.805980 14.846572 17.241461 19.969001 22.972350 26.523227
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.190597 10.752886 13.842162 17.813155 22.751103 28.656101 36.215095
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.440250 9.343719 13.144848 18.417705 25.463403 34.464527 46.728992
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.994804 7.936354 12.082861 18.233751 26.978941 38.794914 55.755441
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.825034 6.620546 10.841508 17.498087 27.504194 41.709595 63.046586
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.005214 5.634835 9.865653 16.919582 28.064808 44.593725 70.423256
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.517271 5.073205 9.425201 17.044947 29.615777 48.969573 80.245832
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.071705 4.483541 8.823849 16.789860 30.483462 52.321270 88.733789
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.870431 4.301567 8.885960 17.637375 33.200012 58.742679 102.427005
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.636986 4.004274 8.683168 17.971224 35.049023 63.876717 114.406753
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.410966 3.672364 8.356342 18.019815 36.376267 68.215684 125.359276
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.226401 3.390323 8.079088 18.113906 37.770366 72.742146 136.901206
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.164396 3.389230 8.397823 19.452490 41.667596 82.030704 157.429661
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.062591 3.270751 8.450400 20.264083 44.654997 89.959883 176.201301
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.967217 3.147187 8.471904 21.011566 47.587424 98.008592 195.735570
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.827456 2.868912 8.089167 20.832248 48.636268 102.637563 209.397487
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.676412 2.515992 7.462199 20.015264 48.273366 104.543451 218.147839
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.559066 2.228850 6.943893 19.367998 48.183145 106.937330 227.928356
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.492272 2.083482 6.768370 19.510643 49.811748 112.824934 244.729778
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.419341 1.894536 6.438471 19.223978 50.445808 116.737680 257.914262
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.396124 1.877039 6.590099 20.178332 53.993951 126.858635 283.928382
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.357756 1.790789 6.524617 20.554088 56.218536 134.344893 305.053133
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.315380 1.674872 6.348187 20.608793 57.681832 140.308514 323.418310